Game Day: Chapel Hill Regional Preview
Tar Heels open NCAA Tournament play at 2 p.m. Friday against Hofstra
Fresh off its eighth ACC Tournament title in program history, No. 10 national seed North Carolina kicks off NCAA Tournament play against No. 4 regional seed Hofstra at 2 p.m. Friday at Boshamer Stadium in the Chapel Hill Regional.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the regional, which also features No. 2 regional seed Georgia and No. 3 regional seed VCU.
Regional schedule
Friday, June 3
Game 1: #1 North Carolina (38-19) vs. #4 Hofstra (30-21), 2 p.m. (ESPN+)
Game 2: #2 Georgia (35-21) vs. #3 VCU (40-18), 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Saturday, June 4
Game 3: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2, 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
Game 4: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Sunday, June 5
Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4, 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5, 6 p.m. (ESPN+)
Monday, June 6
Game 7, if necessary, 6 p.m. (ESPN+)
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Friday pitching matchup
RHP Max Carlson (3-2, 3.64 ERA) vs. RHP Brad Camarda (8-1, 3.46 ERA)
Max Carlson draws the start for the Tar Heels in the Chapel Hill Regional opener, marking the third time in as many starts that he’ll pitch on four days’ rest. Over the previous two — which came against Clemson and N.C. State in the ACC Tournament — he allowed four runs on 12 hits while striking out 10 and walking two in 11 innings. Those two outings marked a continuation of what’s been an impressive stretch for the righty, who has logged a 3.18 ERA in 34 innings over his last seven starts. In that span, he’s pitched five or more innings four times, and two of the three games in which he didn’t were his spot start against Liberty entering the final exam break and his rain-shortened outing at N.C. State. Based on those numbers, it’s safe to say he’s feeling close to his old self after undergoing season-ending elbow surgery in May 2021.
As large a workload as Carlson shouldered last week, it doesn’t come close to the one that his counterpart — Brad Camarda — carried. The right-hander pitched in three of Hofstra’s four Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) Tournament games, highlighted by two seven-inning starts. He also made a relief appearance, finishing the week having allowed five runs on 11 hits while throwing 235 pitches in 15 innings. How much gas he has left in the tank will go a long way toward determining how the Pride will fare. The fifth-year senior won’t blow batters away with his mid-to-upper-80s fastball, but it has a lot of induced vertical break — which essentially measures the gap between a pitch’s height when it crosses home plate and where it would cross home if thrown straight and influenced only by gravity. That can lead to success up in the zone.
Scouting the Bulldogs
Viewed by some national outlets as an Omaha-caliber team in the preseason, Georgia was dealt a significant blow early, when two of their top arms — Dylan Ross and Will Childers — sustained season-ending injuries. Despite that, the Bulldogs still managed to get off to a good start, winning three of their first four SEC series en route to a 25-8 record. Over time, though, the losses of Ross and Childers caught up with them. And after once being in position to host a regional, they limp into the NCAA Tournament with a 10-13 record since April 14.
In Ross and Childers’ absences, Georgia has posted a 5.71 ERA (150th nationally) and issued 5.05 walks per nine innings (223rd). The staff especially struggled against SEC teams, registering a 7.28 ERA in 30 games. With so much inconsistency around him, what right-hander Jonathan Cannon (9-3, 3.62 ERA) has been able to to this year has been that much more important. Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 52 prospect in the 2022 MLB Draft, the Georgia ace ranks in the top 25 nationally in WHIP (0.94, 13th), walks allowed per nine innings (1.21, 13th) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.50, 24th). He’ll get the ball for the Bulldogs in Friday’s game against VCU. Aside from Cannon, the only other reliable pitcher on Georgia’s roster has been right-handed reliever Jack Gowen (2-0, 2.29, 10 saves, .138 opponent average).
The Bulldogs’ offensive numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping: 7.0 runs per game (95th nationally), .451 slugging percentage (100th), .284 batting average (107th) and .379 on-base percentage (121st). But their lineup is an experienced one, featuring several fifth-year seniors who have helped keep the team afloat the last two months. Its top two hitters, brothers Connor Tate (.341/.433/.602, 12 homers, 55 RBIs) and Cole Tate (.353/.417/.519), are chief among them. Sophomore first baseman/third baseman Parks Harber (.307/.369/.520, 12 homers, 49 RBIs) has also been key.
As is always the case, Georgia boasts one of the nation’s best defensive teams with a fielding percentage of .979, which ranks 20th nationally.
Scouting the Rams
The preseason favorite in the Atlantic 10, VCU lived up to expectations all year but found itself trailing Davidson in the standings for much of the season. The Wildcats ultimately took home the outright regular-season title — its first in program history — but it was the Rams who claimed the A-10 auto bid, going 4-0 in the conference tournament to secure their second straight regional appearance.
As good as UNC has been down the stretch, few teams have been hotter than VCU, which enters this weekend with the nation’s third-longest wining streak at 15 games. The Rams’ offense has been at the center of that, averaging 10.3 runs per game, three more than their season average (7.2, 72nd nationally). And as has been the case for the last three seasons, so has first baseman/third baseman Tyler Locklear. Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 107 prospect in the 2022 MLB Draft, Locklear has been sensational this year, slashing .403/.540/.801 with 19 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.341 OPS, which ranks fifth nationally. During VCU’s winning streak, he’s hitting .618 (34-for-55) with nine homers and 36 RBIs. Designated hitter Will Carlone (.315/.403/.512, seven homers, 45 RBIs) and shortstop Connor Hujsak (.288/.362/.492, eight homers, 49 RBIs, 17 stolen bases) are the Rams’ two other notable hitters. While the rest of VCU’s batters have just 22 total homers, they still find other ways to manufacture runs — the team’s 39 sacrifice bunts are tied for the 13th most nationally.
Despite the offense’s recent success, the Rams’ greatest stretch continues to be their pitching, which ranks sixth nationally with a 3.75 ERA. Interestingly, VCU’s pitching staff is comprised of several pitchers who can go multiple innings and doesn’t feature any traditional starts. Lefty Campbell Ellis (4-4, 3.45 ERA) leads the team in innings at 70 1/3 over 20 starts, but he’s pitched through the fifth only once. Maddison Furman (6-0, 2.25) and Tyler Davis (4-2, 3.75) — who is starting Friday’s game against Georgia — give the team two more effective left-handed starting options, and Jack Masloff (4-1, 2.86), Nolan Wilson (4-0, 2.41) and Chase Hungate (6-4, 3.45) anchor the bullpen. The staff allows just 2.97 walks per nine innings, which ranks seventh nationally, but it’s not exempt from giving up free passes — the Rams have hit 48 batters, which ranks 251st nationally.
VCU’s biggest weakness is its defense, which ranks 206th nationally with a .964 fielding percentage.
Scouting the Pride
With only one winning season under its belt since 2000 and three All-CAA selections gone off last year’s 17-22 team, little was expected of Hofstra entering this spring. But the Pride seemingly did the impossible under first-year head coach and 14-year Major League outfielder Frank Catalanotto, placing second in the CAA in the regular season and then winning four straight one-run games in the conference tournament to secure the program’s first-ever regional appearance. The team enters this weekend on a nine-game winning streak, the fourth longest in the country.
Camarda has been a major reason for Hofstra’s success. So, too, has No. 2 starter Mark Faello (7-3, 4.48 ERA), who allowed two runs in seven innings against UNCW last time out. The two of them have combined for 169 1/3 innings while going five or more in 25 of their 27 starts, making them perhaps the second-best 1-2 punch in the Chapel Hill Regional, behind Carlson and Brandon Schaeffer. Michael O’Hanlon (3-2, 3.76, six saves) anchors the bullpen, while fellow righty Steven Kaenzig (2-3, 3.79) is the only other qualified Pride pitcher with an ERA below 5.14. As a staff, Hofstra ranks 39th nationally in hits allowed per nine innings (8.44), 98th in WHIP (1.50) and 104th in ERA (5.13). But it’s also near the bottom in walks allowed per nine innings (5.04, 222nd), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.47, 240th) and strikeouts per nine innings (7.4, 241st).
Offensively, the Pride is led by outfielder Brian Morrell — who began his career as a pitcher at Notre Dame, spent two years at St. John’s and has taken off in his first year at Hofstra. He’s slashing .352/.420/.561 with 13 doubles, eight home runs and 39 RBIs, all team bests. Other notable hitters for the Pride include outfielder Will Kennedy (.331/.378/.508), designated hitter Jake Liberatore (.297/.416/.432) and catcher Kevin Bruggeman (.298/.362/.461, six homers, 32 RBIs). As a team, Hofstra is batting .277 (147th nationally), but its among the worst teams in the country in walks (170, 275th) and on-base percentage (.351, 245th).
Perhaps the Pride’s biggest strength: its defense, which ranks 59th nationally with a .974 fielding percentage.
Numbers to know
The Tar Heels are 110-73 in 33 NCAA Tournament appearances and have reached the College World Series 11 times, most recently in 2018. This marks their 18th appearance in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments.
This will be the 12th time overall and the first under second-year head coach Scott Forbes that UNC has hosted a regional. The Tar Heels are 29-7 in home regional games, including a 3-0 mark in the 2008 Cary Regional.
UNC is 19-19-2 all-time against Georgia. If the two teams meet this weekend, it will be the first game between them since Feb. 22, 2002, when the Bulldogs won 10-8 at the Diamond Classic in Savannah, Georgia.
The Tar Heels are 21-6 all-time against VCU. The last meeting between the two teams was on March 4, 2020, when UNC won 8-3 at Boshamer Stadium.
Friday’s game will be the first between the Tar Heels and Hofstra.
UNC’s 86 home runs are the fourth most in a single season in program history and the most since the 2002 team clubbed a school record 102.
Entering Friday, the Tar Heels’ offense ranked in the the top 100 nationally in home runs (86, 31st), hits (576, 57th), slugging percentage (.474, 67th), hit-by-pitches (76, 82nd) and walks (256, 93rd).
Fourth-year shortstop Danny Serretti (second team), fifth-year outfielder Angel Zarate (third team) and freshman outfielder Vance Honeycutt (third team and all-freshman team) earned All-ACC honors. Honeycutt became the sixth Tar Heel to make the league’s all-freshman team and the third to earn both all-freshman and all-conference honors in the same season, joining Aaron Sabato and Gianluca Dalatri.
From April 4, 2021, to April 2, Zarate reached base in 50 straight games. During the streak, he slashed .382/.474/.545 with 15 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 31 walks compared to just 19 strikeouts.
Zarate is slashing .357/.437/.514 this season. His 89 hits were tied for the 14th most in the country entering Friday, and his 19 doubles were 12 more than his previous career high. His 35 RBIs are also a career high.
Serretti has played in 192 games during his Tar Heel career, making 191 starts. No other UNC player has played in more than 150 games or made more than 124 starts at the Division I level.
Serretti is slashing a career-best .370/.446/.557 this season. He saw a career-best 26-game hitting streak come to an end on May 21 against Florida State.
With 54 career doubles, Serretti has the second most among active ACC hitters and the eighth most in program history. Jarrett Shearin (1996-99) holds the school record of 73.
Sixth-year senior Mikey Madej has started the last 31 games for the Tar Heels in left field. In that span, he’s hitting .339 (37-for-109). He’s notched a hit in 11 of the last 12 games.
With 12 homers and 36 RBIs over the last 28 games, Osuna leads the team in RBIs (53) and is second in homers (19). His 19 homers are tied for the 30th most in the country.
Over the last 32 games, sophomore Mac Horvath is hitting .318/.431/.721 with 11 doubles, 13 homers and 33 RBIs.
Horvath’s 16 homers this season are tied for the 81st most in the country.
Horvath’s team-high 43 walks through 57 games are 28 more than he had in 46 games last season.
After not even attempting a steal last season, Horvath is 18-for-21 on stolen-base attempts this year.
Honeycutt is slashing .377/.492/1.075 with 11 homers and 25 RBIs in 15 games since the N.C. State opener on May 6.
Honeycutt’s 21 homers are tied for the 16th most in the country. They’re also the sixth most in school history in a single season and the most by a freshman. Devy Bell holds the UNC record of 24, set in 1986.
Honeycutt’s 28 stolen bases are tied for the 25th most nationally and the third most by any freshman — UMass Lowell’s Jacob Humphrey has 46, and Western Illinois’ Nick Mitchell has 30. They’re also the most by a UNC freshman since Adam Greenberg had 28 in 2000.
Honeycutt is the first Division I freshman in the BBCOR era (since 2011) to record 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in a single season.
Entering Friday, the Tar Heels’ pitching staff ranked in the top 100 nationally in shutouts (five, 17th), ERA (4.15, 28th), hits allowed per nine innings (8.91, 67th), WHIP (1.43, 68th), strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.31, 69th), strikeouts per nine innings (9.2, 75th) and walks allowed per nine innings (3.99, 87th).
Since the Liberty game on April 27, the start of UNC’s 15-2 stretch, the Tar Heels have registered a 3.35 ERA while allowing 3.2 walks per nine innings. Those marks would rank third and 16th nationally on the season.
Third-year lefty Shawn Rapp has registered a 3.89 ERA while striking out 58 in 44 innings over 40 appearances, the most in the country and tied with Brian Moran (2008) and Andrew Carignan (2007) for the fifth most by a UNC pitcher in a single season. Rob Wooten holds the school record of 47, set in 2007.
After posting a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings over 17 appearances last season, the right-handed Palermo has recorded a 2.49 ERA while striking out 64 in 50 2/3 innings over 33 games. Teams are hitting .175 (32-for-183) against him.