Game Day: UNC at Louisville Series Preview
Tar Heels look to get back on track vs. Cardinals
Coming off a 15-2 loss to South Carolina on Wednesday in Charlotte, No. 20 North Carolina hits the road again this weekend for a three-game series at No. 11 Louisville.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the series, which will begin at 6 p.m. Friday and will continue at 1 p.m. Saturday and 1 p.m. Sunday.
Matchup: UNC (20-9, 6-6 ACC) at Louisville (21-7, 7-2 ACC)
UNC ranks: No. 20/22/20 (Baseball America, D1Baseball, USA Today Coaches Poll)
Louisville ranks: No. 11/12/14 (Baseball America, D1Baseball, USA Today Coaches Poll)
TV: Friday / Saturday / Sunday
Listen: TuneIn
Live Stats: Click here
Pitching matchups
Friday: RHP Max Carlson (1-1, 2.36 ERA) vs. LHP Tate Kuehner (4-1, 3.51 ERA)
For the first time in his UNC career, Max Carlson draws a Friday start. The sophomore didn’t give up a hit while striking out four in two innings last Saturday against Virginia Tech, but he allowed season highs in runs (3) and walks (3). Friday will be his sixth career road start. He’s given up three or more runs in four of them, but turned in the best outing of his career in his last road game, allowing one run on two hits and a walk while striking out 11 over five innings at Miami on March 27.
Kuehner, who has served as the Cardinals’ Friday starter all season, allowed season highs in runs (6) and walks (5) over four innings against Pittsburgh last time out. Over three ACC starts, he’s posted a 6.40 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .314 against him in that span. Friday will be his second career appearance against UNC. He surrendered three runs (one earned) while striking out seven in five innings of relief on May 16, 2021.
Saturday: RHP Connor Bovair (2-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. RHP Jared Poland (2-1, 2.53)
Connor Bovair is coming off his worst outing of the season last Friday against the Hokies, when he surrendered six runs over 3 2/3 innings. Seven of the eight hits he allowed went for extra bases, including four home runs. Before then, the righty had given up just four extra-base hits over 29 innings this season. The Siena transfer also issued two walks against Virginia Tech, bringing his season total to 19.
Bovair will be opposed by Jared Poland. Entering this season, the righty had pitched just 41 1/3 innings over his first three seasons, but his performance so far landed him a spot on Baseball America’s list of college baseball’s top 10 breakout pitchers, released Thursday. Poland’s ability to limit walks has been perhaps the biggest reason for his success, as he’s issued only eight over 32 innings. He will be making his second career appearance against the Tar Heels. He allowed two runs on one hit and one walk while striking out two over 4 1/3 innings of relief on May 15, 2021.
Sunday: LHP Brandon Schaeffer (2-1, 3.74 ERA) vs. LHP Riley Phillips (3-1, 2.68 ERA)
Coming off a pair of impressive relief outings, Brandon Schaeffer returns to the weekend rotation. After picking up his first save as a Tar Heel last Sunday against Virginia Tech, the WVU Potomac State transfer didn’t allow a baserunner while striking out two over two innings against South Carolina. Having thrown just 20 pitches against the Gamecocks, the left-hander will probably be able to go 60-80 against Louisville.
The Cardinals will counter with Phillips. After tossing just 4 2/3 innings over six relief appearances as a true freshman last season, the lefty has gone five or more innings in five of his six starts this year. That includes his last start against Pittsburgh, when he allowed season highs in runs (4) and hits (10) while striking out six and walking zero over five innings.
Scouting the Cardinals
When Louisville came to Chapel Hill last May, the Cardinals were struggling but still appeared to be on their way to the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, UNC found itself on the outside looking in, needing to win at least four more games to make a regional. As it turned out, the Tar Heels played their best ball of the season en route to a three-game sweep that not only helped them reach a regional but ultimately spelled the end for Louisville, which lost four of its next six games to miss the NCAA Tournament.
On the heels of that frustrating finish, the Cardinals lost two-thirds of their weekend rotation and six of their top seven hitters, led by catcher Henry Davis, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. Questions surrounded how Louisville might combat such attrition this offseason, but through 28 games, the answer seems clear: quite well.
Although the Cardinals might not have as many stars as they have in the past, they still boast one of college baseball’s best and most multi-faceted offenses. Entering Thursday, Louisville ranked in the top six nationally in scoring (10 runs per game, third), slugging percentage (.555, fourth), on-base percentage (.432, fifth) and batting average (.322, sixth). They also ranked 15th nationally in stolen bases (57), 17th in walks (158), 18th in home runs (46) and 30th in sacrifice flies (16). Seven of the team’s regulars own an OPS of .989 or better, led by third baseman Ben Metzinger (1.208 with 12 homers, 39 RBIs and eight stolen bases). Other standouts include catcher/first baseman Dalton Rushing (.289/.476/.633 with eight homers and 28 RBIs), outfielder Cameron Masterman (.351/.439/.667 with nine homers and 32 RBIs) and shortstop Christian Knapczyk (.355/496/.545 with 14 stolen bases).
Louisville’s lineup makes up for the shortcomings of its pitching staff. The Cardinals rank 106th nationally and 10th in the ACC in ERA (4.82), with most of their problems coming as the result of too many free passes – the team ranks 125th nationally in hit batters (33) and 128th in walks allowed per nine innings (4.28). Their best arm is left-hander Michael Prosecky (1-0, 1.72 ERA, 6 SV), who Baseball America ranks as the No. 154 overall prospect in the 2022 MLB Draft. He enters the weekend having not allowed a hit in eight innings over his last five appearances.
Numbers to know
UNC leads the all-time series with Louisville, 8-5, but the two teams have split all 10 matchups since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2015.
This weekend marks the Tar Heels’ first trip to Louisville since March 2018, when the Cardinals won two of three games.
Louisville associate head coach/pitching coach Roger Williams played for UNC from 1983-85. He still ranks in the top 10 in program history in career winning percentage (.800, 10th), career ERA (2.51, 10th), single-season ERA (1.19 in 1983, tied for sixth) and single-season strikeouts (113 in 1983, tied for ninth). He also holds the school record for strikeouts in a game with 19 against Duke on April 1, 1985.
Williams also served as the Tar Heels’ pitching coach from 1995-2005.
Entering Thursday, UNC ranked in the top 100 nationally in hit-by-pitches (42, 48th), home runs (34, 51st), hits (277, 65th), home runs per game (1.17, 60th), stolen bases (40, 67th) and stolen bases per game (1.38, 89th).
Fifth-year outfielder Angel Zarate didn’t reach base for the first time this season Sunday, ending his on-base streak at 50 games. During the streak – which began on April 4, 2021 – he slashed .382/.474/.545 with 15 doubles, two triples, four homers and 31 walks compared to just 19 strikeouts.
Zarate is slashing .364/.453/.483 this season. His 43 hits were tied for the 48th most in the country entering Thursday, and his 11 doubles – four more than his previous career high – were tied for the 48th most nationally.
D1Baseball recently named Zarate the No. 43 outfielder in the country.
Fourth-year shortstop Danny Serretti has played in 164 games during his UNC career, making 163 starts. No other Tar Heel player has played in more than 122 games or made more than 96 starts at the Division I level.
With 45 career doubles, tied for the second most among active ACC hitters, Serretti is close to moving into the top 10 in UNC history. Dan Moylan (1998-2000) ranks 10th with 49. Jarrett Shearin (1996-99) holds the school record of 73.
Redshirt sophomore catcher Eric Grintz has eight RBIs in 16 plate appearances (10 at-bats) this season.
Sophomore Johnny Castagnozzi’s 12 multi-hit games are nine more than he had in 42 games last season.
Castagnozzi is slashing .339/.450/.606 with 13 extra-base hits (five doubles and eight home runs). He recorded eight extra-base hits (four doubles and four homers) all last season.
After striking out in 38.7% of his plate appearances last season, Castagnozzi has struck out just 19 times in 131 plate appearances (14.5%) this season. His 13 walks are also three more than he had all last season.
D1Baseball recently named Castagnozzi the No. 7 second baseman in the country.
Sophomore catcher Tomas Frick leads UNC with 22 RBIs through 29 games. He recorded 16 RBIs in 53 games last season.
Sophomore third baseman Mac Horvath has tied the game, given the Tar Heels the lead or pushed their lead to two in the sixth inning or later six times this season.
Horvath’s team-high 21 walks are six more than he had in 46 games last season.
After not even attempting a steal last season, Horvath is 10-for-11 on stolen-base attempts this year.
Horvath registered five batted balls of 100 mph or higher in the Virginia Tech series last weekend, according to UNC’s analytics team. He entered the series with 13 in the 21 games in which data was available.
Sophomore first baseman Hunter Stokely is slashing .278/.400/.291 this season. Of his 22 hits, 21 have been singles. He’s also recorded a double.
Entering Thursday, freshman outfielder Vance Honeycutt’s eight homers were tied for the 73rd most nationally and tied for the fourth most by any freshman – N.C. State’s Tommy White has hit 12, Charlotte’s Cam Fisher and Mississippi State’s Hunter Hines have hit nine, and six other freshmen have hit eight.
Entering Thursday, Honeycutt’s 19 stolen bases were tied for the 11th most in the country and were the most by any freshman. They’re also the most by a UNC freshman since Adam Greenberg and Russ Adams had 28 and 20, respectively, in 2000.
D1Baseball recently named Honeycutt the No. 66 outfielder in the country.
Entering Thursday, the Tar Heels’ pitching staff ranked in the top 40 nationally in ERA (3.44, 12th), shutouts (three, 17th), hits allowed per nine innings (7.75, 25th), strikeouts per nine innings (10.5, 28th), WHIP (1.27, 31st) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.83, 32nd).
Third-year lefty Shawn Rapp has registered a 2.21 ERA while striking out 33 in 20 1/3 innings over 21 appearances, the most in the country. Over the last two seasons, he’s registered a 3.10 ERA as a reliever (17 earned runs in 49 1/3 innings over 41 appearances).
After pitching two innings over four appearances last season, fourth-year righty Kyle Mott is tied for 13th nationally with 16 appearances. He has registered a 3.94 ERA while striking out 42 over 29 2/3 innings. He ranks 42nd nationally in strikeouts per nine innings (12.74), and his five wins are also tied for the 13th most in the country.
Fifth-year senior Caden O’Brien’s 100 career appearances (six starts) are the sixth most among active Division I players and the ninth most by any pitcher in program history.
O’Brien’s four saves this season are already a career high. He notched three saves last season.
After posting a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings over 17 appearances last season, fourth-year righty Davis Palermo has recorded a 1.74 ERA while striking out 27 in 20 2/3 innings over 13 appearances.
D1Baseball recently included O’Brien (No. 32), fourth-year righty Davis Palermo (No. 45) and Rapp (No. 61) on its list of the nation’s top 75 relievers. UNC’s three selections were the most by any team in the country.