Game Day: UNC vs. Arkansas Super Regional Preview
Tar Heels open play vs. Razorbacks at 11 a.m. Saturday
A spot in the College World Series is on the line as No. 10 overall seed North Carolina hosts Arkansas this weekend in a best-of-three Super Regional at Boshamer Stadium.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the Super Regional, which will kick off at 11 a.m. Saturday and will continue at 1 p.m. Sunday and at a time that hasn’t been determined Monday, if necessary.
Super Regional schedule
Saturday, June 11
UNC (42-20) vs. Arkansas (41-19), 11 a.m., ESPN
Sunday, June 12
UNC vs. Arkansas, 1 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2
Monday, June 13 (if necessary)
UNC vs. Arkansas, TBD
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Pitching matchups
Saturday: RHP Max Carlson (4-2, 3.61 ERA) vs. RHP Connor Noland (6-5, 4.13 ERA)
UNC hadn’t announced its starters as of Friday evening, but Scott Forbes told Packer and Durham on Wednesday that Max Carlson and Brandon Schaeffer will start Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Carlson’s fastball — specifically his command of it — has been the main reason for his recent success. But in his first career NCAA Tournament start last Friday against Hofstra, the Pride jumped on the pitch early, hitting two out of the park and fouling off several more to drive Carlson’s pitch count up to 44 after two innings. Despite that slow start, the righty bounced back nicely to allow three runs (two earned) on six hits and three walks while striking out six in 5 2/3 innings. The performance brought his ERA to 3.18 across his last eight starts. In that span, he’s gone five or more innings five times, and two of the three games in which he didn’t were his spot start against Liberty entering the exam break and his rain-shortened outing at N.C. State. This will mark Carlson’s first time pitching on more than four days’ rest since his final regular-season start on May 19 against Florida State.
Arkansas will turn to Connor Noland, the most valuable pitcher in the SEC per Driveline’s collegiate WAR (3.39). Armed with an upper-80s to low-90s fastball, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Noland was one the country’s top pitchers over the first two months of the season, posting a 2.54 ERA through 10 starts. The righty hasn’t been quite as sharp down the stretch, though, recording a 7.02 ERA over his last seven games (six starts). That includes a pair of outings in the Stillwater Regional, where he allowed one run on six hits and three walks while striking out four against Grand Canyon before giving up three runs in one-third of an inning of relief against Oklahoma State.
Sunday: LHP Brandon Schaeffer (7-3, 3.73 ERA) vs. TBA
After turning in a solid start against VCU last Saturday (5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 Ks), Schaeffer delivered a heroic effort against the Rams on Monday, allowing three runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five over 3 2/3 innings. The outing marked the latest in an impressive run for the left-hander, who has notched a 2.81 ERA in 32 innings over his last five starts. The WVU Potomac State transfer will look to carry that momentum into Sunday against the Razorbacks, who are hitting .247/.371/.462 against lefties compared to .280/.384/.491 against righties.
It’s unclear who will start for Arkansas on Sunday or Monday (if necessary), but it will likely be two of RHP Will McEntire (1-2, 3.25 ERA), LHP Zack Morris (5-0, 1.91), LHP Hagen Smith (6-2, 4.89) and RHP Jaxon Wiggins (6-3, 6.12). Smith and Wiggins have been weekend starters for most of the season, making 14 and 15 starts, respectively. Both, however, have been struggling as of late, with Smith logging a 12.96 ERA in 8 1/3 innings over his last five games (two starts) and Wiggins registering a 10.47 ERA in 16 1/3 innings over his last seven games (six starts).
Monday: TBA vs. TBA
Although another option could emerge depending on how UNC employs its bullpen Saturday and Sunday, Will Sandy (1-0, 2.59 ERA) will likely start Monday, should the teams split the first two games. Over his last two outings, the lefty has walked six of the 21 batters he’s faced (28.6% BB%), but he’s worked around the free passes, giving up just one run in four innings. In his last seven games (four starts), he’s recorded a 0.59 ERA in 15 1/3 innings.
Scouting the Razorbacks
Coming off one of the best regular seasons by any team this century and an upset at the hands of N.C. State in Super Regionals, Arkansas once again entered this season as one of the favorites to win the national championship. Despite losing ace Peyton Pallette — MLB Pipeline’s No. 40 prospect in the 2022 MLB Draft — to preseason Tommy John surgery, the Razorbacks still looked the part, at least record-wise, of one of the nation’s best teams over the first two months, going 30-7. They limped into the NCAA Tournament, though, going 8-11 while averaging just over five runs per game.
As much as Arkansas’ lineup struggled during that stretch, it appears to have found its footing heading into this weekend, scoring 44 runs and hitting 12 homers en route to winning the Stillwater Regional. On the season, the Razorbacks rank in the top 50 nationally in homers (98, 21st), walks (299, 29th) and slugging percentage (.483, 47th) while averaging 7.1 runs per game (84th). Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 37 prospect in the Draft, infielder/outfielder Cayden Wallace (.299/.394/.561 with 15 homers, 56 RBIs and 11 stolen bases) anchors the lineup. Other hitters of note include infielder/outfielder Chris Lanzilli (.323/.429/.492), catcher Michael Turner (.310/.382/.504 with nine homers and 48 RBIs), outfielder Braydon Webb (.274/.420/.536 with 14 homers and 38 RBIs), infielder/outfielder Brady Slavens (.252/.337/.543 with 15 homers and 52 RBIs) and infielder Robert Moore (.228/.368/.429 with eight homers and 42 RBIs) — MLB Pipeline’s No. 96 Draft prospect.
Despite lacking much stability behind Noland in the rotation, Arkansas’ pitching staff has still been rather successful, thanks to its bullpen. The Razorbacks rank in the top 30 nationally in hits allowed per nine innings (7.74, ninth), strikeouts per nine innings (10.5, 12th), ERA (4.14, 23rd) and WHIP (1.36, 28th). Righties Zebulon Vermillion (2-0, 2.59 ERA, 2 SV), Brady Tygart (3-4, 3.93, 8) and Kole Ramage (3-2, 4.22, 3) and lefty Evan Taylor (5-0, 3.38, 2) are the team’s other most notable arms.
Arkansas’ biggest strength is its defense, which ranks ninth nationally with a .981 fielding percentage.
Numbers to know
The Tar Heels are 114-74 in 34 NCAA Tournament appearances and have reached the College World Series 11 times, most recently in 2018. This marks their 18th appearance in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments.
This will be UNC’s 10th Super Regional appearance, its third in four NCAA Tournaments and its first under second-year head coach Scott Forbes. The Tar Heels are 15-6 in Super Regionals, including a 13-4 mark at home.
UNC is 0-1 all-time against Arkansas, with the lone meeting coming in the 1989 College World Series. The Razorbacks won 7-3 at Rosenblatt Stadium. That Tar Heel team included current director of baseball operations Dave Arendas and Bobby Honeycutt, father of freshman Vance Honeycutt.
UNC’s 100 home runs are the second most in a single season in program history. The 2002 team clubbed a school record 102.
Entering Super Regionals, the Tar Heels’ offense ranks in the the top 100 nationally in home runs (100, 16th), hits (640, 19th), slugging percentage (.485, 40th), walks (282, 52nd), hit-by-pitches (84, 54th), batting average (.288, 85th) and on-base percentage (.386, 85th).
Fourth-year shortstop Danny Serretti (second team), fifth-year outfielder Angel Zarate (third team) and freshman outfielder Vance Honeycutt (third team and all-freshman team) earned All-ACC honors. Honeycutt became the sixth Tar Heel to make the league’s all-freshman team and the third to earn both all-freshman and all-conference honors in the same season, joining Aaron Sabato and Gianluca Dalatri.
From April 4, 2021, to April 2, Zarate reached base in 50 straight games. During the streak, he slashed .382/.474/.545 with 15 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 31 walks compared to just 19 strikeouts.
Zarate is slashing .360/.434/.513 this season. His 99 hits are tied for the fourth most in the country, and his 19 doubles are 12 more than his previous career high. His 40 RBIs are also a career high.
Zarate’s 10 hits in the Chapel Hill Regional were the most by a Tar Heel in a regional since Dustin Ackley had 10 in 2009.
With one more hit, Zarate will become the ninth player in program history to record 100 in a season, joining Cody Stubbs (2013), Dustin Ackley (2007, 2008 and 2009), Kyle Seager (2009), Tim Fedroff (2008), Chad Flack (2006), Josh Horton (2006), Jeremy Cleveland (2003) and Brian Roberts (1997).
Serretti has played in 197 games during his Tar Heel career, making 196 starts. No other UNC player has played in more than 155 games or made more than 129 starts at the Division I level.
Serretti is slashing a career-best .365/.439/.569 this season. He saw a career-best 26-game hitting streak come to an end on May 21 against Florida State.
With 54 career doubles, Serretti has the second most among active ACC hitters and the eighth most in program history. Jarrett Shearin (1996-99) holds the school record of 73.
Sixth-year senior Mikey Madej has started the last 36 games for the Tar Heels in left field. In that span, he’s hitting .346 (46-for-133). He’s currently riding a 14-game hitting streak, in which he’s batting .421 (24-for-57).
Madej went 9-for-24 with a homer and eight RBIs — all of which came in UNC’s three elimination games — en route to being named the Most Outstanding Player of the Chapel Hill Regional. His eight RBIs were the most by a Tar Heel in a regional since Michael Busch had nine in 2018.
With 13 homers and 40 RBIs over the last 33 games, Osuna leads the team in RBIs (57) and is second in homers (20). His 20 homers are tied for the 30th most in the country and the seventh most in school history.
Over the last 37 games, sophomore Mac Horvath is hitting .322/.433/.717 with 13 doubles, 15 homers and 39 RBIs.
Horvath’s 18 homers this season are tied for the 52nd most in the country and the 10th most in school history.
Horvath’s team-high 46 walks through 62 games are 31 more than he had in 46 games last season.
After not even attempting a steal last season, Horvath is 19-for-22 on stolen-base attempts this year.
Honeycutt is slashing .378/.500/1.014 with 14 homers and 32 RBIs in 20 games since the N.C. State opener on May 6.
Honeycutt’s 24 homers are tied for the 10th most in the country. They’re also tied for the most in school history in a single season. Devy Bell also hit 24 in 1986.
Honeycutt’s three homers in the Chapel Hill Regional were the most by a Tar Heel in a regional since Jay Cox had four in 2006.
Honeycutt’s 29 stolen bases are tied for the 23rd most nationally and the third most by any freshman — UMass Lowell’s Jacob Humphrey has 46, and Western Illinois’ Nick Mitchell has 30. They’re also the most by the second most by a UNC freshman; Brian Roberts had 47 in 1997.
Honeycutt is the first Division I freshman in the BBCOR era (since 2011) to record 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in a single season.
Honeycutt’s 161 total bases are tied for the 10th most by a Tar Heel in a season.
Entering Super Regionals, the Tar Heels’ pitching staff ranks in the top 100 nationally in shutouts (five, 17th), ERA (4.16, 24th), hits allowed per nine innings (8.90, 62nd), strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.28, 71st), WHIP (1.44, 71st), strikeouts per nine innings (9.2, 78th) and walks allowed per nine innings (4.02, 91st).
Since the Liberty game on April 27, the start of UNC’s 19-3 stretch, the Tar Heels have registered a 3.56 ERA while allowing 3.47 walks per nine innings. Those marks would rank fourth and 34th nationally on the season.
Third-year lefty Shawn Rapp has registered a 3.80 ERA while striking out 59 in 45 innings over 42 appearances, the most in the country and the fourth most by a UNC pitcher in a single season. Rob Wooten holds the school record of 47, set in 2007.
After posting a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings over 17 appearances last season, fourth-year righty Davis Palermo has recorded a 2.62 ERA while striking out 71 in 55 innings over 36 games. Teams are hitting .180 (36-for-200) against him.
Fifth-year lefty Caden O’Brien has made 110 career appearances, tied with Rob Wooten (2005-08) for the fifth most in program history.