Game Day: UNC vs. Florida State Series Preview
Tar Heels wrap up regular season at Boshamer Stadium
Fresh off a pair of crucial series wins over N.C. State and Wake Forest, North Carolina will look to keep its momentum rolling in its final regular-season series against No. 12 Florida State this weekend at Boshamer Stadium.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the series, which will begin at 6 p.m. Thursday and will continue at 6 p.m. Friday and 2 p.m. Saturday. (Fans should arrive early Friday and Saturday for special celebrations honoring former UNC head coach Mike Fox and the team’s seniors).
Matchup: UNC (31-19, 12-15 ACC) vs. Florida State (32-19, 15-12 ACC)
UNC ranks: No. -/-/- (Baseball America, D1Baseball, USA Today Coaches Poll)
Florida State ranks: No. 12/20/21 (Baseball America, D1Baseball, USA Today Coaches Poll)
TV: Thursday / Friday / Saturday
Listen: TuneIn
Live Stats: Click here
Pitching matchups
Thursday: RHP Max Carlson (1-2, 3.68 ERA) vs. RHP Carson Montgomery (4-1, 4.68 ERA)
Max Carlson’s last outing might not have been his most dominant, nor his prettiest. But it provided the best illustration yet of how much the sophomore has grown this season, as he gave up two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out five in five innings against Wake Forest last Friday. Behind that effort, the right-hander’s ERA sits at 2.89 in 18 2/3 innings over his last four starts. Thursday will mark his second career start against Florida State. Last season in Tallahassee, Florida, he allowed four runs on two hits and three walks in two-thirds of an inning in what proved to be his penultimate outing before undergoing elbow surgery.
In a surprising move, the Seminoles will turn to Carson Montgomery — their No. 3 starter over the last four weeks — on Thursday, likely with the intention of keeping their top two arms, Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart, on normal rest. The No. 17 overall player and No. 5 right-handed pitcher in the Class of 2020 per Perfect Game, Montgomery was the highest-ranked pitcher in his class to make it to campus. After posting a 4.50 ERA in 28 innings over 11 games (eight starts) last season, he opened this year as Florida State’s midweek start, recording a 3.89 ERA in 37 innings over seven starts. In four weekend starts, he’s logged a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings.
Friday: LHP Brandon Schaeffer (5-2, 4.16 ERA) vs. LHP Parker Messick (6-3, 2.94 ERA)
Brandon Schaeffer will take the mound on Friday, looking to build on the best start of his Tar Heel career last Saturday against Wake Forest, when he allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five across 7 1/3 innings. The start was not only the longest of the WVU Potomac State transfer’s short UNC career, but the longest by any Tar Heel this year. The lefty has been the team’s most consistent arm this season in terms of innings, going five or more seven times. Eight other pitchers have combined for six such performances over 37 starts.
Opposing Schaeffer will be Messick, who looks to be on the cusp of becoming the second two-time winner of the ACC’s Pitcher of the Year award, joining Virginia’s Danny Hultzen (2010 and 2011). As good as Messick was last year in his first stint in the Seminoles’ rotation, he’s been even better this spring, striking out an NCAA-best 132 batters (14.4 K/9) and walking 13 (1.4 BB/9) in 82 2/3 innings over 13 starts. The lefty — who Baseball America ranks as the No. 60 overall player in the 2022 MLB Draft — will be making his second career start against UNC. The other came on April 2, 2021, when he gave up three runs (one earned) on four hits and one walk while striking out 12 over 6 1/3 innings. The Tar Heels went on to win that game, 4-3.
Saturday: TBA vs. LHP Bryce Hubbart (8-1, 2.62 ERA)
For the fourth series in a row, UNC will wait until after the second game to determine who will start Game 3. Righties Connor Bovair (5-4, 6.09 ERA), Connor Ollio (1-1 5.40) and Shaddon Peavyhouse (3-3, 4.97) as well as lefties Shawn Rapp (3-0, 4.35) and Will Sandy (1-0, 3.12) are among the potential candidates. Sandy is the perhaps the most intriguing, having pitched 8 1/3 scoreless innings in four May relief appearances.
Florida State will give the ball to Hubbart, who Baseball America ranks as the No. 63 overall player in the 2022 MLB Draft. Coming off a strong summer in the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he registered a 0.87 ERA over 31 innings, Hubbart has been almost just as sensational this spring, recording the fourth-lowest ERA (2.62) among qualified ACC pitchers while striking out 87 batters (11.4 K/9) and walking 16 (2.1 BB/9). Like Messick, Hubbart will also be making his second career start against UNC. On April, 3, 2021, he allowed two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out four over 3 2/3 innings.
Scouting the Seminoles
Coming off a 2021 season in which it led the ACC and ranked seventh nationally in both ERA (3.45) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.19), Florida State entered this spring with what many thought could be the best pitching staff in school history. That’s a lofty expectation to live up to, but the staff has done just that, which is the main reason why the Seminoles currently find themselves in line to host a regional.
Headlined by one of the country’s most formidable one-two punches in Messick and Hubbart, Florida State’s pitching staff ranks in the top 15 nationally in strikeouts per nine innings (12.2, first), strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.79, fourth), WHIP (1.21, sixth), hits allowed per nine innings (7.64, 12th), walks allowed per nine innings (3.21, 15th) and ERA (3.81, 15th). Right-hander Conner Whittaker (2-2, 1.88 ERA) and left-hander Wyatt Crowell (5-0, 1.93, 2 SV) anchor the bullpen.
As great as the Seminoles have been on the mound, their offense has held them back at times this season. Florida State ranks last in the ACC in scoring (5.8 runs per game, 201st nationally), slugging percentage (.415, 175th) and home runs (51, 111th). It is also 189th nationally in on-base percentage (.364) and 220th in batting average (.261), but the team recently received a boost to its lineup with the return of leadoff man Tyler Martin (.300/.443/.343) — the son of head coach Mike Martin Jr. — who played only one game in February and March. Outfielders Jaime Ferrer (.309/.438/.505 with seven homers and 36 RBIs) and Reese Albert (.303/.406/.382) are the only other Seminoles batting .300 or better, but first baseman Alex Toral (.219/.319/.497 with 13 homers and 43 RBIs) and second baseman Brett Roberts (.296/.374/.457) are other hitters of note.
Numbers to know
Florida State leads the all-time series with UNC, 72-35. The Tar Heels’ last series win over the Seminoles came in the form of a sweep at Dick Howser Stadium in 2017.
UNC will honor former head coach Mike Fox in a special ceremony before Friday’s game. The starting second baseman on the Tar Heels’ 1978 College World Series team, Fox took over as the head coach of his alma mater prior to the 1999 season and went on to lead UNC to 948 wins, three ACC Tournament titles and seven College World Series appearances in 22 seasons before retiring in August 2020.
The Tar Heels will recognize 11 academic seniors/grad students before Saturday’s game, the last for many at Boshamer Stadium: Gage Gillian, Clemente Inclan, Mikey Madej, Caden O’Brien, Connor Ollio, Davis Palermo, Shaddon Peavyhouse, Nik Pry, Will Sandy, Danny Serretti and Angel Zarate.
Ranked No. 22 in the RPI, UNC has played the country's 10th-hardest schedule, according to WarrenNolan.com.
Entering Thursday, the Tar Heels’ offense ranked in the top 100 nationally in home runs (71, 44th), hits (499, 73rd), slugging percentage (.463, 75th) and hit-by-pitches (68, 80th).
From April 4, 2021, to April 2, Zarate reached base in 50 straight games. During the streak, he slashed .382/.474/.545 with 15 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 31 walks compared to just 19 strikeouts.
Zarate is slashing .340/.425/.479 this season. His 73 hits were tied for the 59th most in the country entering Thursday, and his 16 doubles were nine more than his previous career high. With 29 RBIs, the fifth-year outfielder is just three shy of his career high.
Serretti has played in 185 games during his Tar Heel career, making 184 starts. No other UNC player has played in more than 143 games or made more than 117 starts at the Division I level.
Serretti is slashing a career-best .366/.446/.535 this season. He’s currently riding a career-best 24-game hitting streak, in which he’s batting .433/.525/.598 with 20 RBIs and 19 walks compared to 13 strikeouts. He has 14 multi-hit games in that span, including seven in the last eight games.
With 51 career doubles, the third most among active ACC hitters, Serretti is tied with Pete Kumiega (1980-83) for the ninth most in program history. Jarrett Shearin (1996-99) holds the school record of 73.
Serretti’s 74 hits this season are tied for the 51st most in the country.
Sixth-year senior Mikey Madej has started the last 24 games for the Tar Heels in left field. In that span, he’s hitting .294 (25-for-85).
With nine homers and 27 RBIs over the last 21 games, Osuna leads the team in both homers (16) and RBIs (44). His 16 homers were also tied for the 43rd most in the country entering Thursday.
Over the last 25 games, sophomore Mac Horvath is hitting .320/.436/.777 with nine doubles, 12 homers and 20 RBIs.
Horvath’s 15 homers this season were tied with freshman Vance Honeycutt for the 55th most in the country entering Thursday.
Horvath’s team-high 37 walks through 50 games are 22 more than he had in 46 games last season.
After not even attempting a steal last season, Horvath is 17-for-19 on stolen-base attempts this year.
Honeycutt was named the ACC Co-Player of the Week on Monday after hitting .474 (9-for-19) with three homers and a 1.670 OPS in five games against Gardner-Webb, Charleston Southern and Wake Forest last week.
Since moving into the cleanup spot on May 8 at N.C. State, Honeycutt is slashing .500/.556/1.227 with two doubles, a triple, four homers and 10 RBIs across six games.
With five homers over his last eight games, Honeycutt is up to 15 on the season, three shy of Aaron Sabato’s UNC freshman record, set in 2019.
Entering Thursday, Honeycutt’s 27 stolen bases were tied for the 19th most nationally and were tied for the second most by any freshman — UMass Lowell’s Jacob Humphrey has 44, and Western Illinois’ Nick Mitchell also has 27. They’re also the most by a UNC freshman since Adam Greenberg had 28 in 2000.
Entering Thursday, the Tar Heels’ pitching staff ranked in the top 100 nationally in ERA (4.43, 50th), strikeouts per nine innings (9.6, 50th), shutouts (three, 55th), strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.29, 68th), hits allowed per nine innings (8.96, 76th) and WHIP (1.46, 86th).
Rapp has registered a 4.35 ERA while striking out 53 in 39 1/3 innings over 36 appearances, the most in the country.
After posting a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings over 17 appearances last season, the right-handed Palermo has recorded a 2.25 ERA while striking out 54 in 44 innings over 28 games. Teams are hitting .175 (28-for-160) against him.